Comr. Shul-Nom Yohanna Bako.
The 2023 poll in Nigeria has been shaped by the whirlwind of the #ObidientsMovement which altered many traditional variables and trajectories which is good for our democracy.
The LP supporters demonstrated their commitment to a course during the just concluded Presidential poll and I respect that bold statement and for those who think it’s just a social media hype were proved wrong.
However, at the state level, there’s need for strategic thinking and SWOT analysis of the electoral demography and voting trajectories.
The official result as declared by INEC in Kaduna State shows a four-horse race as summarized below:
1st. PDP = 554,360
2nd. APC= 399,293
3rd. LP= 294,494
4th. NNPP= 92,969
The PDP won all the 3 Senatorial seats and won 10 out of the 16 Federal Constituencies in the state. APC won 4 and LP won 2 seats.
The results across the 23 LGAs shows that PDP won in 14 LGAs, APC won in 2 LGAs while LP won in 7 LGAs.
The LP has gained grounds in Kaduna State largely because of #ObidientMovement & Peter Obi’s Vice Presidential candidate is from Kaduna State. However, the dynamics is most likely going to change during the gubernatorial election because Obi/Datti and Engr. Dr. Michael Auta won’t be on the ballot and I don’t know how Hon. Asake can turn LP’s 3rd position in the state to 1st position with due respect to him. I will need to be educated on the possibility.
In zone 3, the PDP won 4 out of the 5 Federal Constituencies in the zone and LP won 1. And PDP won the Senatorial seat in Zone 3.
The 2023 zone 3 Senatorial election shows that only 335,520 votes were cast with 6,798 rejected votes.
Note that Zone 3 has 1008,358 registered voters but *672,838 did not vote.*
Note also that it is not peculiar to zone 3 (Southern Kaduna) alone.
In the just concluded Presidential poll, 93,469,008 registered to vote but only 25,286,616 were accredited with a percentage turn out of 27.05%
For us to lose all, it’s better for us to restore the Deputy Governor’s slot which we’ve lost already (faith wise) just like Niger State. The PDP picked Dr. John Ayuba as Deputy which we can negotiate for Governorship position subsequently from there. We did that during Late Yakowa’s regime aided by the incumbency factor and handshake across River Kaduna.
It’s a common knowledge that before one can be declared a governor in Kaduna State, he/she must have the highest votes cast and must get 25% of votes in two-third of the 23 LGAs which is 16 LGAs. This calls for deeper reflection and strategy.
Worthy of note is that:
*Zone I* (Zaria, S/Gari Zaria, Soba, Ikara, Kubau, Lere, Kudan & Makarfi) has 2,699 polling units (33.68%) and 1,335,121 registered voters.
*Zone II* (Chikun, Kajuru, B/Gwari, K/South, K/North, Giwa & Igabi) has 3,356 polling units (41.89%) and 1,740,741 registered voters. While
*Zone III* (Jema’a, Kachia, Sanga, Jaba, Kagarko, Kaura, Kauru & Z/Kataf) has 1,957, polling units (24.43%) and 1,008,358 registered voters.
A caveat is sighted and must be averted.
“This is what others have done to us is, frankly, less painful than this is what we have done to ourselves, worst still, this is what we are doing to ourselves” – Soyinka.
My submission is not in anyway discrediting Hon. Asake’s qualification as an individual, far from that. But facts are sacred and opinions are free. Our political survival as a people must be looked into in both diachronic and synchronic perspectives. Our common agenda should dovetail and not nosedive. We should have a concrete agreement and strategic alliance in order to bring the dividends of democracy to our region.
On a sad note, the venomous trade of words with one another has eaten deep into our brotherly fabric with attendant consequences. PLEASE LET’S FORGIVE ONE ANOTHER AND WORK TOGETHER.
06/03/2023.
