Nigerians would have to face another round of premium motor spirit (petrol) nationwide price hike after Dangote Refinery, on Friday, announced yet another gantry price increment, the fourth time in March 2026 and since the Iran-United States-Israel war escalation.
The 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery in a circular to marketers said it has adjusted its pump price upward to N1,245 per liter from N1,175 per liter.
Dangote’s latest fuel price hike was contained in a notice issued on Friday.
“The gantry price increased from N1,175 per liter to N1,245 per liter,” the refinery stated in the notice, noting that the new price would take effect from Saturday, 21st March 2026.
The refinery blamed the hike on the global geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which caused Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude blends to surge to $112 and $98 per barrel as of Saturday morning.
The spokesperson of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria and the Natural Oil and Gas Suppliers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, confirmed the latest price hike to DAILY POST.
The Dangote Refinery has increased its petrol price four times so far this March, from N774 to N875, then N995, N1,175, and now to the latest hike of N1,245 per liter.
This means that marketers and retailers who rely on Dangote petrol would have to increase their petrol retail pump to fit into the latest adjustment.
Recall that Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority industry data released on March 10 showed that Dangote Refinery supplied 61 percent, which is 39.6 million liters per day, of the country’s 64.9 ml/d domestic petrol supply for February 2026.
By implication, the majority of Nigerians would have to spend more to get fuel from Saturday.
This means that petrol price would surge by around N70 to between N1,331 and N1,400 from N1,261 and N1,330 per liter sold on Friday night in Abuja.
Reacting to Dangote Refinery’s latest price hike, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics, Wumi Iledare and Professor of Accounting and Finance at Lead City University, Godwin Oyedokun, in separate interviews with DAILY POST on Friday, described it as a direct consequence of the global shock caused by the Iran-US-Israel war.
Dangote fuel price hike reflects Global Oil Reality, not local policy failure — Prof Iledare
Prof. Iledare has defended the recent increase in the petrol price by Dangote Refinery to N1,245 per liter, describing it as a direct consequence of global crude oil dynamics rather than domestic policy shortcomings.
Reacting to the development, Iledare said the adjustment was largely inevitable given the surge in Brent crude prices, which recently climbed above $110 per barrel amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
“Fuel prices are closely tied to global crude oil prices. What we are seeing today is not unusual in a deregulated market environment,” he said.
He stressed that despite Nigeria’s improved local refining capacity and the crude-for-naira initiative, domestic fuel pricing still reflects international market realities.
“Domestic petrol pricing remains influenced by global market forces. You cannot isolate Nigeria from what is happening in the international oil market,” he noted.
Explaining further, Iledare pointed out that refiners are compelled to price their products based on key economic considerations.
“Commercial refiners must take into account the opportunity cost of crude oil, whether sourced locally or internationally. They must also consider foreign exchange exposure, financing obligations, and future market risks,” he said.
According to him, local refining, while beneficial, does not provide immunity from global shocks.
“Local refining reduces import logistics risks, but it does not shield Nigeria from global oil price volatility. That is a fundamental reality Nigerians must understand,” he added.
The professor emphasized that the country is now operating under a more market-driven pricing regime, a significant shift from the subsidy era.
“Petrol pricing is now more market-driven and less politically determined. This transition may be painful, but it is necessary for long-term sustainability,” he stated.
He urged Nigerians to adapt to the changing energy landscape by adopting more efficient consumption patterns.
“Energy efficiency, transport pooling, and gradual fuel substitution, especially towards gas, will become increasingly important in the coming years,” he advised.
Iledare also called for greater accountability and consistency in government policies, stressing that citizens should focus on broader sector reforms.
“Nigerians should demand policy consistency, transparency, and healthy competition in the downstream sector— not just lower pump prices,” he said.
Describing the ongoing shift as both challenging and promising, he maintained that the benefits would only materialize with the right policy environment.
“The short-term pain can yield long-term gains if government policies remain predictable, refining competition deepens, and social protection measures are properly targeted,” he said.
He, however, warned that uncertainty in policy direction could undermine potential gains.
“The real danger is not high prices alone—it is policy uncertainty. Investors need clarity, and consumers need stability,” he cautioned.
Highlighting the broader outlook, Iledare said Nigeria must seize the opportunity to strengthen its energy sector beyond refining.
“The real opportunity is not just local refining— it is building a resilient and diversified energy economy that can withstand global shocks,” he added while speaking with DAILY POST.
Dangote fuel price hike driven by Global Oil shock — Prof Oyedokun
On his part, Prof. Oyedokun has said the latest increase in petrol price to about N1,245 per liter by Dangote Refinery is largely a reflection of global oil market disruptions.
Oyedokun attributed the development to rising crude oil prices, noting that Brent Crude has surged above $110 per barrel amid escalating tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.
“The latest increase in petrol price to about N1,245 per liter reflects a deeper global crisis rather than a purely domestic pricing decision.
“The surge is largely driven by rising crude oil prices, particularly Brent crude, which has climbed significantly due to geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions,” he said.
Speaking on the implications for Nigeria, the professor warned that the effects are already being felt across the economy.
“For Nigeria, the implications are immediate and severe. Despite local refining capacity, the country remains vulnerable to international oil price movements,” he stated.
He explained that structural factors continue to expose the economy to external shocks.
“Dollar-denominated crude pricing, exchange rate pressures, and a deregulated downstream sector mean that global energy shocks are quickly transmitted into domestic inflation.
“This directly worsens living costs for households and raises operational expenses for businesses,” he added.
On policy response, Oyedokun advised against a return to blanket fuel subsidies, urging more targeted interventions instead.
“Government response should be pragmatic and targeted. Rather than reintroducing a blanket fuel subsidy, authorities should consider temporary relief measures focused on critical sectors such as transportation and agriculture,” he said.
He further recommended fiscal and monetary adjustments to cushion the impact.
“Reducing taxes and levies on petroleum products, stabilizing the foreign exchange market, and ensuring effective implementation of crude-for-naira arrangements will help mitigate the pressure,” he stated.
Looking ahead, he stressed the need for structural reforms in the energy sector.
“In the medium to long term, boosting crude oil production, strengthening domestic refining competition, and investing in alternative energy and mass transit systems are essential steps,” he noted.
Oyedokun also called on Nigerians to adjust expectations in line with current realities.
“The era of artificially cheap fuel has ended, and global market forces now play a dominant role.
“Nigerians must adopt a realistic and constructive stance by demanding transparency in pricing while adjusting consumption patterns.
“Ultimately, Nigeria’s true energy security lies not just in refining capacity but in reducing structural dependence on global oil price volatility,” he told DAILY POST
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